Please slow down the resumption of electrolytic al

2022-08-24
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Please slow down the pace of electrolytic aluminum production.

good scenery is always without trouble. After a little spring in the second half of the year, the electrolytic aluminum market has returned to the decline channel again, especially since the end of November, Shanghai aluminum has fallen rapidly, with a cumulative decline of more than 1000 yuan per ton. Seeing that the electrolytic aluminum market will repeat the mistakes, what should we do

looking at the non-ferrous metal market since the fourth quarter of this year, starting from the rebound in coal prices, the price of domestic bulk raw materials has rebounded steadily, and the price of electrolytic aluminum has rebounded steadily. A large number of aluminum enterprises represented by Chinalco, Weiqiao entrepreneurship, Oriental hope, etc. announced profits, while Henan Yongdeng aluminum, where the author is located, lost 18.89 million yuan from the first half of the year, and the Jedi fought back in the past three months, Achieved the first profit in nearly two years. Under the background of the continuous depreciation of the RMB and a large number of global currencies flocking to bulk commodities to seek value preservation and appreciation, according to the general economic law, as an aluminum industry with strong energy attributes, stopping losses and tending to profits has increasingly become a high probability event

but not for long! The optimistic prediction was soon beaten to pieces by the cold reality. Unexpectedly, the falling aluminum price made the electrolytic aluminum industry, which had just seen the dawn, panic again

however, the author believes that the biggest culprit causing this round of market panic is the acceleration of resumption of production. Since the second half of the year, the steady recovery of aluminum prices has accelerated the resumption of production and production of many discontinued projects or new projects that have not been put into production. The expectation of a large number of new production capacity being put into the market has made the aluminum market, which has just tasted the sweetness of supply and demand balance, return to the decline channel again. According to incomplete statistics of relevant companies, in November alone, the national new investment and restart capacity was nearly 5million tons. On the other hand, in the name of revitalizing the real economy, many local governments have announced plans for the construction of industrial clusters led by the application and protection of the aluminum industry, so the haze of overcapacity in the industry lingers. If this "enthusiasm" for investment and production cannot be stopped in time, the report card of capacity reduction in the past for a long time will be destroyed in a short time. If electrolytic aluminum is labeled as overcapacity again, it will be another test for the whole industry when the state issues the ban order again

how to reverse this unfavorable situation? China Nonferrous Metals Association has issued a prescription: industry self-discipline and expanding the application of aluminum. On December 2, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association convened a symposium for some domestic backbone electrolytic aluminum enterprises to analyze the current severe situation. The final consensus was that we must resolutely implement the relevant provisions of the State Council document No. 41 and the State Office Document No. 42, cherish the hard won good situation, strictly control the new production capacity through internal self-discipline, and prevent the deep decline of aluminum prices around the Spring Festival. At the same time, we should continue to speed up the research on relevant topics, Expand the application of aluminum to develop in depth

in addition, practicing internal skills and strengthening cost control are also the key. In the face of the cold wave of the industry that may return at any time, industry insiders Yang Mingsheng, executive vice president of Henan Yongdeng aluminum industry, said: when the price of electrolytic aluminum is 12000 yuan per ton, we may tighten our belts, which may also sharply reduce product orders and reduce cost pressure. But in the future, there are more than 100000 people waiting to make profits behind the installation, and the price rises to 14000 yuan per ton, but we are very likely to die in the false prosperity. The market is so ruthless, Only self-help is the right way in the world. Eye and 100 mesh wood powder eye vigorously promotes fine production inward, and infiltrates lean management into all links of cost control and efficiency increase

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